← North American National Championship
Fire SuitedTier 2
at North American National Championship
decks
5
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
44
21-22-1
overall winrate
48.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.2%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1364
· median 1376
· range 1191–1458
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1034
Q1 1280
Q3 1470
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.9% | -7.1 |
| Water Exia | 7.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.8% | +6.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.7% | +5.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.4% | -5.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.3% | -15.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.5% | -6.2 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.0% | -27.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.9% | +6.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Jin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +24.0 |
